Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
